The onset, cessation, and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources, agricultural practices, and food security. However, the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain. In this study, we analyze how global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°C and 2°C could affect the timing of rainfall onset (RODs), rainfall cessation (RCDs), and the overall duration of the rainy season (LRS) ov...

Accurate seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial given its socioeconomic impacts on countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. Using hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea6), coupled mean-state biases in the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO and EEIO) and their impacts on IOD prediction are examined. Results show that GloSea6 exhibits a pronounced cold bias...

Compound flooding occurs when multiple contributing factors, such as oceanic (storm surge, tide, and waves) and continental (heavy rainfall and river discharge), combine to exacerbate flood impacts. Tropical cyclone (TC)-induced compound flooding is a major hazard and societal concern, particularly in underdeveloped, highly exposed and vulnerable countries like Madagascar. Despite being repeatedly impacted by TCs, the region r...

Overfishing has significantly decreased global shark populations, with some species experiencing reductions of approximately 70% over the last 50 years. Singapore is a major shark fin transhipment hub that helps to satisfy the global demand for shark fins, which are considered status symbols and reputed to have medicinal value in Asian culture. Despite the recognised and urgent need to better protect shark populations, the suc...

Timing of the rainy season is essential for a number of climate sensitive sectors over Eastern Africa. This is particularly true for the agricultural sector, where most activities depend on both the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall throughout the season. Using a combination of observational and reanalysis datasets, the present study investigates the atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late...

Constraints on evolutionary adaptation and range shifts mean that phenotypic plasticity, which includes physiological, developmental or behavioural responses to environmental conditions, could be an important mode of adaptation to a changing climate for many species with small insular populations. While there is evidence to suggest adaptive plasticity to climate in some island populations, little is known about this capacity i...

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that model uncertainty is mostly related to the response of the atmospheric circulation t...

The biannual seasonal rainfall regime over the southern part of West Africa is characterised by two wet seasons, separated by the ‘Little Dry Season’ in July–August. Lower rainfall totals during this intervening dry season may be detrimental for crop yields over a region with a dense population that depends on agricultural output. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models do not correctly capture this season...