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Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood eventNARA Subscribed
The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains unde...
Aim Existing abiotic and biotic threats to plant species (e.g., disease, drought, invasive species) affect their capacity to recover post‐fire. We use a new, globally applicable framework to assess the vulnerability of 26,062 Australian plant species to a suite of active threats after the 2019–2020 fires. Location Australia. Time period 2019–2020. Major species studied Plants. Methods Spatial data for existing threats and info...
Aim Megafire events generate immediate concern for wildlife and human well‐being, but their broader ecological impacts likely extend beyond individual species and single fire events. In the first mechanistic study of fire effects focussed on ecosystems, we aimed to assess the sensitivity and exposure of ecosystems to multiple fire‐related threats, placing impacts in the context of changing fire regimes and their interactions w...
Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disab...
Continental‐scale syntheses of Australian pyromes – misclassification of south‐western eucalypt woodlands misinforms managementNARA Subscribed
Global and continental‐scale analysis of ecological phenomena can offer important insights through the identification of patterns and associations not detectable at smaller scales. However, using proxies for ecological phenomena, such as vegetation mapping for spatially projecting fire regime niches and post‐fire plant responses, require critical examination of predictions to determine utility. Using local studies in south‐wes...
Underestimated effects of climate on plant species turnover in the Southwest Australian Floristic RegionNARA Subscribed
Aim Spatial turnover in plant species composition reflects the interplay between species’ environmental requirements and their dispersal dynamics. However, its origins are also historical, arising from speciation, extinction and past range dynamics. Here, we test the effects of current environmental gradients and geographical distance on regional species turnover. Using a new approach, we then interpret residual turnover patte...
Will among‐population variation in seed traits improve the chance of species persistence under climate change?NARA Subscribed
Aim Seed traits related to recruitment have direct relevance for plant fitness and persistence. Trait variation in time and among populations may increase species resilience and ultimately reduce the risk of extinction. However, patterns of among‐population variation in critical recruitment traits remain poorly known and are often disregarded when considering extinction risk under future climates. Location Global. Methods In t...
Aim Granite outcrops may be able to act as refugia for species during adverse climate change, owing to their topographic complexity. We assessed this hypothesis by examining phylogeographical patterns in a common, geographically widespread granite endemic, Stypandra glauca (Hemerocallidaceae). Location Granite outcrops of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region, Western Australia. Methods Twenty‐four tetraploid individuals o...
Making decisions to conserve species under climate changeNARA Subscribed
Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate changeNARA Subscribed
Aim Identifying and protecting refugia is a priority for conservation under projected anthropogenic climate change, because of their demonstrated ability to facilitate the survival of biota under adverse conditions. Refugia are habitats that components of biodiversity retreat to, persist in and can potentially expand from under changing environmental conditions. However, the study and discussion of refugia has often been ad ho...
Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demog...
Relative Importance of Reproductive Biology and Establishment Ecology for Persistence of a Rare Shrub in a Fragmented LandscapeNARA Subscribed
Verticordia fimbrilepis (Turcz) ssp. fimbrilepis (Myrtaceae) is an endangered shrub that occurs in a number of populations varying in size and landscape context. We compared the importance of factors associated with its reproductive biology with that of factors influencing the regeneration niche in survival of small, isolated populations in contrasting habitat fragments. Small populations on road verges had equal or greater di...