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The cross‐scale resilience model suggests that system‐level ecological resilience emerges from the distribution of species’ functions within and across the spatial and temporal scales of a system. It has provided a quantitative method for calculating the resilience of a given system and so has been a valuable contribution to a largely qualitative field. As it is currently laid out, the model accounts for the spatial and tempor...
Evidence for regional nitrogen stress on chlorophyll a in lakes across large landscape and climate gradientsNARA Subscribed
Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) commonly stimulate phytoplankton production in lakes, but recent observations from lakes from an agricultural region suggest that nitrate may have a subsidy‐stress effect on chlorophyll a (Chl a ). It is unclear, however, how generalizable this effect might be. Here, we analyzed a large water quality dataset of 2385 lakes spanning 60 regions across 17 states in the Northeastern and Midwestern U....
Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990NARA Subscribed
The United States (U.S.) has faced major environmental changes in recent decades, including agricultural intensification and urban expansion, as well as changes in atmospheric deposition and climate—all of which may influence eutrophication of freshwaters. However, it is unclear whether or how water quality in lakes across diverse ecological settings has responded to environmental change. We quantified water quality trends in...
We present the first evidence of biological change in all of the pelagic Laurentian Great Lakes associated with recent climatic warming. We hypothesized that measured changes in lake temperature, and the resulting physical changes to water columns, were affecting diatom communities in the Great Lakes. A paleolimnological analysis of 10 sediment cores collected from deep locations throughout the Great Lakes basin indicates a re...
Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystemsNARA Subscribed
Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and th...
The relationship between chlorophyll a (Chl a ) and total phosphorus (TP) is a fundamental relationship in lakes that reflects multiple aspects of ecosystem function and is also used in the regulation and management of inland waters. The exact form of this relationship has substantial implications on its meaning and its use. We assembled a spatially extensive data set to examine whether nonlinear models are a better fit for Ch...
Ecological structures and processes occur at specific spatiotemporal scales, and interactions that occur across multiple scales mediate scale‐specific (e.g., individual, community, local, or regional) responses to disturbance. Despite the importance of scale, explicitly incorporating a multi‐scale perspective into research and management actions remains a challenge. The discontinuity hypothesis provides a fertile avenue for ad...
Quantifying parameter uncertainty and assessing the skill of exponential dispersion rainfall simulation modelsNARA Subscribed
The exponential dispersion model (EDM) has been demonstrated as an effective tool for quantifying rainfall dynamics across monthly time scales by simultaneously modelling discrete and continuous variables in a single probability density function. Recent applications of the EDM have included development and implementation of statistical software packages for automatically conditioning model parameters on historical time series...
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