DAVID I. LEECH results 7
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Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half centuryNARA Subscribed
Global warming has advanced the timing of biological events, potentially leading to disruption across trophic levels. The potential importance of phenological change as a driver of population trends has been suggested. To fully understand the possible impacts, there is a need to quantify the scale of these changes spatially and according to habitat type. We studied the relationship between phenological trends, space and habita...
A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such “trophic asynchrony” is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long‐distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially...
Multi‐state, multi‐stage modeling of nest‐success suggests interaction between weather and land‐useNARA Subscribed
Many factors may affect daily nest survival. We present a novel multi‐state, multi‐stage model to estimate daily survival for each nest stage, daily hatching probability and probability that a failed nest died during a specific stage when stage of failure is unknown. The model does not require that hatching date be known. We used data from a large citizen science dataset to demonstrate the application of this approach, explori...
Passerines may be sufficiently plastic to track temperature‐mediated shifts in optimum lay dateNARA Subscribed
Projecting the fates of populations under climate change is one of global change biology's foremost challenges. Here, we seek to identify the contributions that temperature‐mediated local adaptation and plasticity make to spatial variation in nesting phenology, a phenotypic trait showing strong responses to warming. We apply a mixed modeling framework to a Britain‐wide spatiotemporal dataset comprising >100 000 records of firs...
Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environmentsNARA Subscribed
Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenologica...
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