Legacies of human land use have the potential to impact demographic responses to climate. However, few studies have investigated the interactive effects of land use legacies and climate change on tree demography. The demographic performance of rear edge populations in particular is an important determinant of a species' long‐term persistence. In this study, we investigated whether human land use legacies affect demographic res...

Aim Although global trade is implicated in biological invasions, the assumption that trade networks explain the large‐scale distributions of non‐native species remains largely untested. We addressed this by analysing relationships between global trade networks and plant pest invasion. Location Forty‐eight countries in Europe and the Mediterranean. Time period Current. Major taxa studied Four hundred and twenty‐two non‐native p...

Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between‐population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of...

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non‐native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated t...

Accurate models for species' distributions are needed to forecast the progress and impacts of alien invasive species and assess potential range‐shifting driven by global change. Although this has traditionally been achieved through data‐driven correlative modelling, robustly extrapolating these models into novel climatic conditions is challenging. Recently, a small number of process‐based or mechanistic distribution models hav...