Uncertainty in long-term projections of future climate can be substantial and presents a major challenge to climate change adaptation planning. This is especially so for projections of future precipitation in most tropical regions, at the spatial scale of many adaptation decisions in water-related sectors. Attempts have been made to constrain the uncertainty in climate projections, based on the recognised premise that not all...

In this paper, we use an inductive approach and longitudinal analysis to explore political influences on the emergence and evolution of climate change adaptation policy and planning at national level, as well as the institutions within which it is embedded, for three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia). Data collection involved quantitative and qualitative methods applied over a 6-year period from 201...

This paper reviews the state of knowledge on social vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots (deltas, semi-arid regions and snowpack- or glacier-fed river basins) in Africa, Central Asia and South Asia, using elements of systematic review methods. Social vulnerability is defined as a dynamic state of societies comprising exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We examine whether the hot spots have specific chara...

Anthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator‐based approach. Countries in Central...

The aim of this study is to characterise rainfall variability and trend in the drought‐prone Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia using standard rainfall statistical descriptors. A review of previous studies of Ethiopian rainfall shows different conclusions between studies about the existence of trends primarily due to their use of different periods of analysis. Various rainfall indicator series are presented and analysed for tre...

A detailed historical reconstruction and analysis is presented of the longest record of climate observations for Ethiopia, from 1898 to 2002 in Addis Ababa. Prior to 1951 the record comprises rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures recorded in different locations by different observers. The rainfall series is complete except for 1899 and 1900, but the temperature series are very incomplete. Using documentary evidence, we...

This study investigates the climatological variables responsible for fluctuations in Lake Victoria levels, in particular the causal mechanism responsible for a major anomaly that occurred in 1961. A Lake Victoria rainfall series (LVRS) correlates significantly (5%) with Lake Victoria levels and is utilized for subsequent analysis of rainfall variability. Relationships between annual and seasonal (March–May and October–December...