Exposure biases are a pervasive non‐climatic change in land air temperature records which have been introduced as a result of changes in the way thermometers were sheltered from solar radiation and the elements over time. Exposure biases have not been widely accounted for in observational records, due to difficulties detecting/correcting the bias using traditional homogenisation techniques; therefore, exposure biases still con...

Climate projections for the UK exhibit substantial uncertainty, and this uncertainty is a hindrance to robust and timely decision making on both adaptation and mitigation policy issues. A large part of the uncertainty is associated with dynamical changes of the regional atmospheric circulation rather than thermodynamic changes which are better constrained by model simulations. Of particular importance for the UK is the extent...

Human society and natural systems are intrinsically adapted to the local climate mean and variability. Therefore, changes relative to the local expected variability are highly relevant for assessing impact and planning for adaptation as the climate changes. We analyse the emerging climate signal relative to the diagnosed internal variability (signal-to-noise ratio, S/N) of a set of recently published climate indices over Europ...

The weather on Ben Nevis—the highest mountain in the British Isles at 1345 m above mean sea level—sometimes shows episodes of remarkably low relative humidity (RH) with few precedents anywhere else in the British Isles. We are able to quantify this for the first time using a high‐quality series of hourly dry‐ and wet‐bulb observations, made on the summit. These observations were made between 1883 and 1904, but have only just b...

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, ac...

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Her...