The spatial scale at which demographic performance (e.g., net reproductive output) varies can profoundly influence landscape‐level population growth and persistence, and many demographically pertinent processes such as species interactions and resource acquisition vary at fine scales. We compared the magnitude of demographic variation associated with fine‐scale heterogeneity ( 1 ha) fluctuations associated with fire disturbanc...

The Stress Gradient Hypothesis (SGH), which predicts increasing ratios of facilitative:competitive interactions with increasing stress, has long been a guiding framework for conceptualizing plant–plant interactions. Recently, there has been a growing recognition of the roles of microbes in mitigating or exacerbating environmental stress for their plant hosts. As such, we might predict, based on the SGH, that beneficial microbi...

Vegetative dormancy, that is the temporary absence of aboveground growth for ≥ 1 year, is paradoxical, because plants cannot photosynthesise or flower during dormant periods. We test ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for its widespread persistence. We show that dormancy has evolved numerous times. Most species displaying dormancy exhibit life‐history costs of sprouting, and of dormancy. Short‐lived and mycoheterotrophic s...

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed...

Demographic transition matrices are among the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for...

Metacommunity theory allows predictions about the dynamics of potentially interacting species’ assemblages that are linked by dispersal, but strong empirical tests of the theory are rare. We analyzed the metacommunity dynamics of Florida rosemary scrub, a patchily distributed pyrogenic community, to test predictions about turnover rates, community nestedness, and responses to patch size, arrangement, and quality. We collected...

Florida scrub supports many endemic species in a pyrogenic shrubland on xeric yellow sands. One genus with multiple endemics is the mint Dicerandra, with its five narrowly endemic species most prevalent in edges and recently burned areas. Study of the demography of Dicerandra frutescens, an endemic and endangered mint restricted to Florida scrub, began in September 1988. Eleven populations have been studied at various location...

The threat of global warming to rare species is a growing concern, yet few studies have predicted its effects on rare populations. Using demographic data gathered in both drought and nondrought years between 1996–2003 in central Arizona upper Sonoran Desert, we modeled population viability for the federally endangered Purshia subintegra (Kearney) Henrickson (Arizona cliffrose). We used deterministic matrix projection models an...

Land managers seeking to reestablish historical fire regimes need guidance on how to apply prescribed fire to promote the population persistence of endangered species. We explored extinction risks of Hypericum cumulicola , a fire‐dependent plant endemic to the Lake Wales Ridge, Florida ( U.S.A ). Stochastic and deterministic matrix population models based on six censuses ( 1994–1999 ) and data from several germination and seed...

Population viability analysis ( PVA) has become a commonly used tool in endangered species management. There is no single process that constitutes PVA, but all approaches have in common an assessment of a population's risk of extinction (or quasi extinction) or its projected population growth either under current conditions or expected from proposed management. As model sophistication increases, and software programs that faci...