The spatial scale at which demographic performance (e.g., net reproductive output) varies can profoundly influence landscape‐level population growth and persistence, and many demographically pertinent processes such as species interactions and resource acquisition vary at fine scales. We compared the magnitude of demographic variation associated with fine‐scale heterogeneity ( 1 ha) fluctuations associated with fire disturbanc...

Vegetative dormancy, that is the temporary absence of aboveground growth for ≥ 1 year, is paradoxical, because plants cannot photosynthesise or flower during dormant periods. We test ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for its widespread persistence. We show that dormancy has evolved numerous times. Most species displaying dormancy exhibit life‐history costs of sprouting, and of dormancy. Short‐lived and mycoheterotrophic s...

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed...

Demographic transition matrices are among the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for...

Metacommunity theory allows predictions about the dynamics of potentially interacting species’ assemblages that are linked by dispersal, but strong empirical tests of the theory are rare. We analyzed the metacommunity dynamics of Florida rosemary scrub, a patchily distributed pyrogenic community, to test predictions about turnover rates, community nestedness, and responses to patch size, arrangement, and quality. We collected...

For species in disturbance‐prone ecosystems, vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) often vary both between and within phases of the cycle of disturbance and recovery; some of this variation is imposed by the environment, but some may represent adaptation of the life history to disturbance. Anthropogenic changes may amplify or impede these patterns of variation, and may have positive or negative effects on population...

The threat of global warming to rare species is a growing concern, yet few studies have predicted its effects on rare populations. Using demographic data gathered in both drought and nondrought years between 1996–2003 in central Arizona upper Sonoran Desert, we modeled population viability for the federally endangered Purshia subintegra (Kearney) Henrickson (Arizona cliffrose). We used deterministic matrix projection models an...