Global ocean models at non-eddying resolutions currently used for subseasonal to seasonal to decadal (S2S2D) prediction suffer from a severe deficit in internal variability. In ensemble data assimilation (DA), this can lead to under-dispersed ensembles that require inflation schemes. However, inflation corrections do not persist into the forecast phase, causing ensemble spread to collapse at longer lead times. This study evalu...

Interdisciplinary, stakeholder-engaged research is increasingly being used for managing climate change in social-ecological systems. We apply a Collaborative Adaptive Experimental Governance lens to the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, a remote, relatively pristine coral reef system ~130–190 km offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, where biodiversity protection coexists with recreation and offshore energy. We coupled p...

Agulhas Leakage transports relatively warm and salty Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic Ocean and as such is an important component of the global ocean circulation. These waters are part of the upper limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and Agulhas Leakage variability has been linked to AMOC variability. Agulhas Leakage is expected to increase under a warming climate due to a southward shift in th...

In light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional‐ and local‐scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral–algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spat...

Coral reefs are increasingly exposed to elevated temperatures that can cause coral bleaching and high levels of mortality of corals and associated organisms. The temperature threshold for coral bleaching depends on the acclimation and adaptation of corals to the local maximum temperature regime. However, because of larval dispersal, coral populations can receive larvae from corals that are adapted to very different temperature...

The Coral Triangle encompasses an extensive region of coral reefs in the western tropical Pacific with marine resources that support millions of people. As in all other reef regions, coral reefs in the Coral Triangle have been impacted by anomalously high ocean temperature. The vast majority of bleaching observations to date have been associated with the 1998 La Niña phase of ENSO . To understand the significance of ENSO and o...