Southeast Asia is a major contributor to global rice production. Yet, this production is increasingly threatened by climate change, particularly by changes in the rainy season. In this study, We examine the impact of shifts in seasonal cumulative rainfall and characteristics of the rainy season on rice production across Southeast Asia. To achieve this, we utilize the framework of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Proje...

Maize production in Zambia is characterized by significant yield gaps attributed to nutrient management and climate change threatens to widen these gaps unless agronomic management is optimized. Insights in the impacts of climate change on maize yields and the potential to mitigate negative impacts by crop management are currently lacking for Zambia. Using five Global Circulation models and the WOFOST crop model, we assessed c...

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Add...

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from ri...

A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles ( MME s). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e‐mean) and median (e‐median) often seem to predict quite well. However, few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors. We ask what is th...

This study evaluates the potential use of the ECMWF System‐4 seasonal forecasts ( S4 ) for impact analysis over East Africa. For use, these forecasts should have skill and small biases. We used the 15‐member ensemble of 7‐month forecasts initiated every month, and tested forecast skill of precipitation ( tp ), near‐surface air temperature ( tas ) and surface downwelling shortwave radiation ( rsds ). We validated the 30‐year (1...

A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low‐input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)‐ and high‐input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provide...

There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options – planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice – using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cove...

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat mod...