Forecasting seasonal sea levels along many coasts remains challenging, with generally lower skills than forecasts for the open oceans. We investigate the influence of ocean dynamics on forecasting monthly sea level anomalies for the United States Gulf Coast and East Coast using the Estimating Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) system, which is initialized monthly from 1992 through 2017 and runs forward for 12 months u...

Coastal water level information is crucial for understanding flood occurrences and changing risks. Here, we validate the preliminary version (0.9) of NOAA’s Coastal Ocean Reanalysis (CORA), which is a 43-year reanalysis (1979–2021) of hourly coastal water levels for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean (i.e., the Gulf and East Coast region, or GEC). CORA-GEC v0.9 was conducted by the Renaissance Computing Institute using the...

Realistic representation of monthly sea level anomalies in coastal regions has been a challenge for global ocean reanalyses. This is especially the case in coastal regions where sea levels are influenced by western boundary currents such as near the U.S. Atlantic Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. For these regions, most ocean reanalyses compare poorly to observations. Problems in reanalyses include errors in data assimilation and...

Influenza A viruses (IAV) circulate endemically among many wild aquatic bird populations that seasonally migrate between wintering grounds in southern latitudes to breeding ranges along the perimeter of the circumpolar arctic. Arctic and subarctic zones are hypothesized to serve as ecologic drivers of the intercontinental movement and reassortment of IAVs due to high densities of disparate populations of long distance migrator...

Sea level rise is increasing the frequency of high tide flooding in coastal communities across the United States. Although the occurrence and severity of high-tide flooding will continue to increase, skillful prediction of high tide flooding on monthly-to-annual time horizons is lacking in most regions. Here, we present an approach to predict the daily likelihood of high tide flooding at coastal locations throughout the U.S. u...

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are known to influence coastal water levels along the East Coast of the United States. By identifying empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which coherently contribute from the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to the AMO index (AMOI), we characterize both the expression of ENSO in the unsmoothed AMOI, and coherent relationships between these...

Ecology Letters (2011) 14 : 24–33 Abstract Despite the importance of migratory birds in the ecology and evolution of avian influenza virus (AIV), there is a lack of information on the patterns of AIV spread at the intra‐continental scale. We applied a variety of statistical phylogeographic techniques to a plethora of viral genome sequence data to determine the strength, pattern and determinants of gene flow in AIV sampled from...