J. Savin results 26
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This study evaluates changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics under different future emissions scenarios in a large set of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) TC detection method is used to identify large-scale conditions conducive to TC formation. By comparing TC detections from CMIP6 historical simulations (1984–2014) with projections fo...
Tropical cyclone landfall intensity (Vmax) for western North Pacific nations: return period and trendsNARA Subscribed
Human impacts, including financial losses, are closely related to the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in the western North Pacific (WNP) region. Here, 44 years of observational TC wind speed (V max ) and track records (1980–2023) are used to examine TC landfall intensity trends and recurrence. Analysis is conducted over individual nations and includes modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)...
Tropical cyclones (TCs) as a natural hazard pose a major threat and risk to the human population globally. This threat is expected to increase in a warming climate as the frequency of severe TCs is expected to increase. In this study, the influence of different monthly sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the locations and frequency of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region is investigated. U...
Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts and implications for disaster risk managementNARA Subscribed
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are amongst the costliest natural hazards for southwest Pacific (SWP) Island nations. Extreme winds coupled with heavy rainfall and related coastal hazards, such as large waves and high seas, can have devastating consequences for life and property. Effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to make TCs even more destructive in the SWP (as that observed particularly over Fiji) and elsewhere aroun...
Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nationsNARA Subscribed
Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active pha...
The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) projection results to different models and the detection and tracking scheme used is well established. In this study, future climate projections of TC activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) are assessed with a model‐ and basin‐independent detection and tracking scheme. The scheme is applied to selected models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments f...