Natural hazard risk is assessed by leveraging, among other things, the historical record. However, if the record is short then there is the danger that risk models are not capturing the true envelope of natural variability. In the case of tropical cyclones in Australia, the most reliable observational record spans less than 50 years. Here, we use a much longer (ca. 6000-year) chronology of intense paleo-cyclones and, for the f...

The number and types of late Quaternary records of tropical cyclones (TCs) and temperate storms have been increasing globally over the past 10 years. There are now numerous such records for the Atlantic Ocean (USA) and Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, South Pacific Ocean, and a fewer number from the northwest Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The most obvious characteristic of these records is that many reveal extended altern...

A statistical model for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone landfalls in Queensland, Australia using an index of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is presented. The approach uses a generalised linear model (GLM) to relate seasonal counts to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A Bayesian methodology is employed to estimate parameters of the model. The available tropical cyclone record is first separated into historical...