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Recent studies indicated that the internal climate variability plays an important role in various aspects of projected climate changes on regional and local scales. Here we present results of the spreads in projected trends of wintertime North American surface air temperature and extremes indices of warm and cold days over the next half-century, by analyzing a 50-member large ensemble of climate simulations conducted with CanE...
Record-breaking heat wave in southern China and delayed onset of South China Sea summer monsoon driven by the Pacific subtropical highNARA Subscribed
We investigate a record-breaking heat wave in southern China (SC) and explore its association with the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM), using station observations and various reanalysis products. This heat wave event started in mid-May 2018 and persisted more than 15 days, when the maximum air temperature anomaly exceeded 6 °C. Meanwhile, the onset of the SCSSM was extremely late in 2018, primarily due to the intr...
In the present study, the northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) over the South China Sea (SCS) during the summer monsoon season are divided into two types. One is the northward propagation of ISOs confined in the SCS (defined as P1-ISO), another for ISOs moving from the SCS to Southern China (SC) defined as P2-ISO. The spatial and temporal structures of the two types of ISOs are compared based on the analysis...
Improving prediction of two ENSO types using a multi-model ensemble based on stepwise pattern projection modelNARA Subscribed
This study focuses on improving prediction of the two types of ENSO by combining multi-model ensemble (MME) with a statistical error correction method that is based on a stepwise pattern projection and applied to all models before doing the MME. We evaluate such a combinational approach using five dynamical model datasets from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) project for the period of 1982–2010. The prediction sk...
Contribution of SST change to multidecadal global and continental surface air temperature trends between 1910 and 2013NARA Subscribed
The global mean surface air temperature (GMST) shows multidecadal variability over the period of 1910–2013, with an increasing trend. This study quantifies the contribution of hemispheric surface air temperature (SAT) variations and individual ocean sea surface temperature (SST) changes to the GMST multidecadal variability for 1910–2013. At the hemispheric scale, both the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) observations...
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