Atmospheric circulations bring moisture from above the ocean to the high mountains of the western Tibet Plateau (TP), thus wind variability is of great importance to the water cycle centered on the western TP. This study therefore examines the leading modes of the wind fields over the western TP. We use the multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis method to detect the dominant wind patterns above the wester...

Here, we explored in depth the relationship among the deterministic prediction skill, the probabilistic prediction skill and the potential predictability. This was achieved by theoretical analyses and, in particular, by an analysis of long-term ensemble ENSO hindcast over 161 years from 1856 to 2016. First, a nonlinear monotonic relationship between the deterministic prediction skill and the probabilistic prediction skill, der...