Global climate models (GCMs) are essential to projecting sea‐level variations (SLV), yet at regional scales, their simulations frequently exhibit substantial biases associated with internal variability. Reducing these uncertainties in an interpretable way is critical for enhancing the reliability of regional projections. Here, we develop a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) ensemble strategy. GCM‐simulated SLV is used to construct...

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is widely adopted for identifying spatial patterns in regular latitude‐longitude gridded geographical data. However, a standard EOF analysis could underestimate variances from low latitudes due to the increasing grid cell areas when moving toward the equator. A broadly adopted compensating approach is the area‐weighted EOF, where the grid data are multiplied by a factor proportional...

Climate change has resulted in an increase in drought in most global land areas, mainly due to a decrease in regional precipitation (P) or an increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET) induced by climate warming. However, knowledge on the contributions of P and PET to long‐term changes in global drought duration and intensity is still limited. In this study, we quantitatively analysed the respective contributions of P and...