Aim Direct human impacts and climate change jeopardise the stability of ecological systems. Recent trends are built atop a long history of vegetation change from the Pleistocene deglaciation and Holocene human population expansion. We aimed to model a long‐term measure of ecological stability over the last 20,000 years, a period that includes both the most recent global warming and the spread of human civilisation. Location Eu...

Background Human pressures are driving the emergence of unprecedented, ‘novel’, ecological and environmental systems. The concept of novel (eco)systems is well accepted by the scientific community, but the use and measurement of novelty has outgrown initial definitions and critiques. There are still unresolved methodological and conceptual differences in quantifying novelty that prevent a unified research approach. Framework H...

The role of species interactions in setting species range limits is rarely empirically explored. Here, we quantify host and parasite densities in subtropical eastern Australia (26.65°–30.20°S) to examine whether parasitism might contribute to range limitation of Acropora corals at their cold-range boundary. 79% of Acropora corals had endolithic barnacles (family Pyrgomatidae), with higher parasite load in larger corals and up...

Aim Measuring changes in ecological diversity over time is core to understanding and managing human impacts on natural systems. Observational data do not capture pre‐modern community states or multiple generations of long‐lived taxa, so interpretation of current diversity trends requires comparison with the past. We aimed to estimate diversity trends over long time periods in a series of fossil coral terraces. Location Huon pe...

The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (...

Drivers of reef decline are well known both today and in the geological past. Considerably less is known about the preconditions for a pantropical expansion of coral reefs. The geological record of reef building is characterised by considerably long intervals with very limited reef expansion and geologically brief (< 20 million years) episodes of prolific, pantropical reef growth. Here, we propose a new "co-occurrence hypothes...

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species‐specific patterns. Consequently, we...

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (‘Life below Water’) of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working toward...

Aim The aims were to test the role of temperature in latitudinal patterns of egg size and investigate maternal investment trade‐offs among coral taxa. Location Global, from 34° S to 34° N. Time period 1981–2020. Major taxa studied Reef coral species from the order Scleractinia. Methods We compiled a comprehensive geo‐referenced global dataset of egg sizes (diameter or volume) and fecundity (number of eggs per area) for colonia...

Anthropogenic disturbance and climate change can result in dramatic increases in the emergence of new, ecologically novel, communities of organisms. We used a standardised framework to detect local novel communities in 2135 pollen time series over the last 25,000 years. Eight thousand years of post‐glacial warming coincided with a threefold increase in local novel community emergence relative to glacial estimates. Novel commun...

Over this century, coral reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, as marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and frequent, and ocean acidification (OA) progresses. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment of how, and to what degree, OA will moderate the responses of corals to MHWs as they intensify throughout this century. Here, we first projected future MHW intensities for tropical regions under three future...

Recreational fishing in Australia makes important contributions to local economies and fisheries harvests. Historical evaluations of the cumulative effects of exploitation for most recreationally targeted Australian fish stocks remain unexplored, as do the social and cultural contexts of recreational fishing. Historical newspaper articles were used to derive quantitative and qualitative catch data on Queensland's east coast ba...

Our understanding of the response of reef‐building corals to changes in their physical environment is largely based on laboratory experiments, analysis of long‐term field data, and model projections. Experimental data provide unique insights into how organisms respond to variation of environmental drivers. However, an assessment of how well experimental conditions cover the breadth of environmental conditions and variability w...