The onset, cessation, and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources, agricultural practices, and food security. However, the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain. In this study, we analyze how global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°C and 2°C could affect the timing of rainfall onset (RODs), rainfall cessation (RCDs), and the overall duration of the rainy season (LRS) ov...

In recent years, there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society. This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change. Likewise, this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa. By levera...

Accurate seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial given its socioeconomic impacts on countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. Using hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea6), coupled mean-state biases in the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO and EEIO) and their impacts on IOD prediction are examined. Results show that GloSea6 exhibits a pronounced cold bias...

Compound flooding occurs when multiple contributing factors, such as oceanic (storm surge, tide, and waves) and continental (heavy rainfall and river discharge), combine to exacerbate flood impacts. Tropical cyclone (TC)-induced compound flooding is a major hazard and societal concern, particularly in underdeveloped, highly exposed and vulnerable countries like Madagascar. Despite being repeatedly impacted by TCs, the region r...

Accurate real-time forecasts of atmospheric plume behavior are crucial for effective management of environmental release incidents. However, the computational demands of weather simulations and particle transport codes limit their applicability during emergencies. In this study, we employ a U-Net enhanced Fourier Neural Operator (U-FNO) to statistically emulate the calculations of the WSPEEDI dose forecasting numerical simulat...

Transdisciplinary research (TDR) approaches have been cited as essential for overcoming the intractable sustainability challenges that the world is currently facing, including air pollution, water management and climate change. However, such approaches can be difficult to undertake in practice and can consequently fail to add value. Therefore, examples of what works in practice (and what does not) are helpful to guide future r...

Deep‐sea fishes have long captured our imagination with striking adaptations to life in the mysterious abyss, raising the possibility that this cold, dark ocean region may be a key hub for physiological and functional diversification. We explore this idea through an analysis of body shape evolution across ocean depth zones in over 3000 species of marine teleost fishes. We find that the deep ocean contains twice the body shape...

Constraints on evolutionary adaptation and range shifts mean that phenotypic plasticity, which includes physiological, developmental or behavioural responses to environmental conditions, could be an important mode of adaptation to a changing climate for many species with small insular populations. While there is evidence to suggest adaptive plasticity to climate in some island populations, little is known about this capacity i...

Climate change is drastically changing the timing of biological events across the globe. Changes in the phenology of seasonal migrations between the breeding and wintering grounds have been observed across biological taxa, including birds, mammals, and insects. For birds, strong links have been shown between changes in migration phenology and changes in weather conditions at the wintering, stopover, and breeding areas. For oth...

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that model uncertainty is mostly related to the response of the atmospheric circulation t...

The biannual seasonal rainfall regime over the southern part of West Africa is characterised by two wet seasons, separated by the ‘Little Dry Season’ in July–August. Lower rainfall totals during this intervening dry season may be detrimental for crop yields over a region with a dense population that depends on agricultural output. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models do not correctly capture this season...