The climate of the Maritime Continent, including Singapore, is influenced by a wide range of tropical drivers including the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and equatorial wave activity. In Singapore, the rainfall pattern is often marked by episodes of short intense rainfall bursts, primarily driven by mesoscale convective systems, such as Sumatra squall l...

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal i...

The development of the Singapore regional climate model (SINGV-RCM) is documented in this study. The model’s skill in predicting mean and extreme rainfall over the Maritime Continent at 8 km and 2 km grid resolution is assessed using observed rainfall. The model’s sensitivity to vertical grid and convection parametrization is also evaluated. Results demonstrate the added value of downscaling to 8 and 2 km. The spatial and temp...

A fully-coupled general circulation model of intermediate complexity is documented. The study presents an overview of the model climatology and variability, with particular attention to the phenomenology of processes that are relevant for the predictability of the climate system on seasonal-to-decadal time-scales. It is shown that the model can realistically simulate the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean, as...

We apply the Lagrangian-based moisture back trajectory method to two reanalysis datasets to determine the moisture sources for wet season precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula, defined as land on the Asian continent to the south of the Turkish border and west of Iran. To accomplish this, we make use of the evaporative source region between 65°W–120°E and 30°S–60°N, which is divided into twelve sub-regions. Our comparison of...