Climate change is expected to create a range of impacts on biodiversity, land use, and economic activities, but those sector impacts are rarely analysed together. Here, we assess how climate change and socioeconomic narratives will affect land use and biodiversity in the state of Bavaria, Germany. We apply a multi-sectoral modelling approach with two climate projections (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) downscaled from three different climate...

Sustainable intensification of agricultural lands might reconcile the conservation of tropical forest with food production, but in-depth assessments considering uncertainty and extreme values are missing. Uncertainty prohibits mapping probabilities to potential future states or ranking these states in terms of their likelihood. This in turn hampers the assessment of possible decision outcomes. Here, we use simulations to inves...

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio‐economic objectives in decision‐making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio‐economic objectives in land‐use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tr...