We address the question of separating the ocean’s deterministic response to time-dependent forcing from its intrinsic chaotic variability. Ideally, one could compute the ensemble mean directly without performing numerous realizations, but this requires knowledge or closure of the second-order statistics — the classical turbulent-closure problem, here recast for a non-equilibrium, geophysical setting. Building on the ideas of n...

We investigate the predictability properties of the ocean dynamics using an ensemble of short-term numerical regional ocean simulations forced by prescribed atmospheric conditions. In that purpose, we developed a kilometric-scale, regional model for the Western Mediterranean sea (MEDWEST60, at 1/60∘ horizontal resolution). A probabilistic approach is then followed, where a stochastic parameterization of model uncertainties is...