Multi-model decadal predictions and probabilistic climate scenarios are compared and evaluated, using observations from 1961 to 2023. For averages of years 2–9 ahead, initialised predictions show higher skill for Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but not for global mean surface temperature (GMST). The correlation skill for NAO depends on the composition of the multi-model e...

Projections of West African Monsoon (WAM) precipitation are uncertain. To address this, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving WAM precipitation change is needed to shed light on inter-model differences and aid model development. The full forcing of increased CO 2 can be decomposed into different components such as the impact of ocean warming, or the direct radiative effect of increased CO 2 . This paper investiga...

Every summer in eastern Asia, the combined effects of complex topography, multiple potential moisture sources and a mixture of sub-tropical and mid-latitude dynamics produces an environment, in which subtle differences in spatial patterns of atmospheric circulation can profoundly affect the geographic distribution of rainfall. Understanding and quantifying these patterns is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand, pr...