Aim Ecological state shifts that alter the structure and function of entire ecosystems are a concerning consequence of human impact. Yet, when, where and why discrete ecological states emerge remains difficult to predict and monitor, especially in high‐diversity systems. We sought to quantify state shifts and their drivers through space and time in the most ecologically complex marine ecosystem: tropical coral reefs. Location...

Aim Predictions for the future of coral reefs are largely based on thermal exposure and poorly account for potential geographic variation in biological sensitivity to thermal stress. Without accounting for complex sensitivity responses, simple climate exposure models and associated predictions may lead to poor estimates of future coral survival and lead to policies that fail to identify and implement the most appropriate inter...