Climate change threatens biodiversity when species cannot tolerate, adapt to, or track shifting environmental conditions to stay within their climatic niches. A major unresolved question is whether and how species' genetic diversity modulates these dynamics, buffering against range contractions or facilitating range expansions. To test this, we integrated the largest global databases of species range shifts and genetic diversi...

Rapid warming in the Gulf of Maine (GoM) is contributing to widespread shifts in the abundance, distribution, and quality of marine prey communities. These shifts cascade up the food web and will ultimately affect the fitness and viability of seabirds, the impacts of which are expected to be especially pronounced at the southern edge of their ranges. Using integrated population models, we analyzed 26 years (1998–2023) of demog...

Thermophilization of communities, or shifts in composition favoring more warm‐adapted species, over time and space is a common response to warming from global climate change and localized effects of land‐use change. However, the interplay between community thermophilization driven by temporal warming in global climate and spatial warming in local climate is not well explored empirically. Here, we use long‐term ecological monit...

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait‐based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate...

Global climate change is causing shifts in phenology across multiple species. We use a geographically and temporally extensive data set of butterfly abundance across the state of Ohio to ask whether phenological change can be predicted from climatological data. Our focus is on growing degree days (GDD), a commonly used measure of thermal accumulation, as the mechanistic link between climate change and species phenology. We use...

Urbanization and global climate change can profoundly alter biological systems, yet scientists often analyze their effects separately. We test how the timing of life cycle events (phenology) is jointly influenced by these two components of global change. To do so, we use a long‐term phenological data set of 20 common butterfly species from 83 sites across the state of Ohio, USA, with sites that range from rural undeveloped are...

Local adaptation, adaptive population divergence and speciation are often expected to result from populations evolving in response to spatial variation in selection. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the major features that characterise the spatial patterns of selection, namely the extent of variation among populations in the strength and direction of selection. Here, we analyse a data set of spatially replicated s...

Social insects exhibit remarkable variation in their colony breeding structures, both within and among species. Ecological factors are believed to be important in shaping reproductive traits of social insect colonies, yet there is little information linking specific environmental variables with differences in breeding structure. Subterranean termites (Rhinotermitidae) show exceptional variation in colony breeding structure, di...

Physiological tolerance of environmental conditions can influence species‐level responses to climate change. Here, we used species‐specific thermal tolerances to predict the community responses of ant species to experimental forest‐floor warming at the northern and southern boundaries of temperate hardwood forests in eastern North America. We then compared the predictive ability of thermal tolerance vs. correlative species dis...

Effects of climate warming on wild populations of organisms are expected to be greatest at higher latitudes, paralleling greater anticipated increases in temperature in these regions. Yet, these expectations assume that populations in different regions are equally susceptible to the effects of warming. This is unlikely to be the case. Here, we develop a series of predictive models for physiological thermal tolerances in ants b...