Reliable multi-pollutant emission forecasts are needed to coordinate climate mitigation and air quality management. This study developed a Pollutant Adaptive Bayesian Dynamic Regression and Conformal Prediction framework (PA-BDR-CP-X) for India’s methane (CH 4 ), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), oxides of nitrogen (NO x ) and particulate matter 2.5 micrometers (PM 2.5 ) emissions using annual EDGAR emissions, ver...

The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of t...