This study evaluates changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics under different future emissions scenarios in a large set of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) TC detection method is used to identify large-scale conditions conducive to TC formation. By comparing TC detections from CMIP6 historical simulations (1984–2014) with projections fo...

The historical TC-related cost-intensity relationship is examined using documented costs of TCs that passed within 50 km of Vanuatu over the period 1972–2023. These are used to estimate the cost of TCs (i.e., for ~ 72% of TCs that passed within 50 km of Vanuatu) that have missing cost records. These estimates, combined with the reported records, create a database of historical TC costs for Vanuatu which was absent until now. I...

Human impacts, including financial losses, are closely related to the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in the western North Pacific (WNP) region. Here, 44 years of observational TC wind speed (V max ) and track records (1980–2023) are used to examine TC landfall intensity trends and recurrence. Analysis is conducted over individual nations and includes modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)...

This study examines the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) in Vanuatu, one of the world's most disaster‐prone countries. Here, TCs often result in costly outcomes to the national economy, such as damage to buildings and critical infrastructure, disruptions to livelihoods, food security, health and economic sectors such as tourism and agriculture. The severity of TCs in Vanuatu—such as severe TC Kevin and Judy,...

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and tropical depressions (TDs), hereafter collectively referred to as tropical storms, often exhibit large year‐to‐year variability in the South Pacific Ocean basin. Many past studies have examined this variability in relation to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, particularly using observational data from the post‐satellite era (i.e., after the 1970s when TC observations became more co...

Recently, we developed seasonal prediction schemes with improved skill to predict tropical cyclone (TC) activity up to 3 months in advance for the Solomon Islands (SI) region (5°–15°S, 155°–170°E) using sophisticated Bayesian regression techniques. However, TC prediction at subseasonal timescale (i.e., 1–4 weeks in advance) is not being researched for that region despite growing demands from decision makers at sectoral level....

Tropical cyclones (TCs) as a natural hazard pose a major threat and risk to the human population globally. This threat is expected to increase in a warming climate as the frequency of severe TCs is expected to increase. In this study, the influence of different monthly sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the locations and frequency of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region is investigated. U...

Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to climate variability and change. Developing strategies for adaptation and planning processes in the Pacific requires new knowledge and updated information on climate science. In this paper, we review key climatic processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, how they may change in the future and what the impact of these changes might be. In particular, our emphasis is on the two m...

This study examines the climatology, variability, and trends of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the Solomon Islands (SI) territory, in the wider southwest Pacific (SWP), using the South Pacific Enhanced Archive for Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) database. During the period 1969/1970–2018/2019, 168 TCs were recorded in the SI territory. A cluster analysis is used to objectively partition these tracks into three clusters of simil...

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are amongst the costliest natural hazards for southwest Pacific (SWP) Island nations. Extreme winds coupled with heavy rainfall and related coastal hazards, such as large waves and high seas, can have devastating consequences for life and property. Effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to make TCs even more destructive in the SWP (as that observed particularly over Fiji) and elsewhere aroun...

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive synoptic systems and can cause enormous loss of life and property damages in the South Pacific island nations. The impact of tropical depressions (TDs, i.e. weaker systems that do not develop into TCs) can also be staggering in the region in terms of heavy flooding and landslides, but a lack of complete records often hinders research involving TD impacts. A methodology ha...

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active pha...

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) projection results to different models and the detection and tracking scheme used is well established. In this study, future climate projections of TC activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) are assessed with a model‐ and basin‐independent detection and tracking scheme. The scheme is applied to selected models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments f...