Aim Biome classification schemes are widely used to map biogeographic patterns of vegetation formations on large spatial scales. Future climate change will influence biome patterns, and vegetation models can be used to assess the susceptibility of biomes to experience transitions. However, biome classification is not unique, and various classification schemes and biome maps exist. Here, we aimed to assess how the choice of bio...

Africa's protected areas (PAs) are the last stronghold of the continent's unique biodiversity, but they appear increasingly threatened by climate change, substantial human population growth, and land‐use change. Conservation planning is challenged by uncertainty about how strongly and where these drivers will interact over the next few decades. We investigated the combined future impacts of climate‐driven vegetation changes in...

Climate change is challenging the ability of protected areas (PAs) to meet their objectives. To improve PA planning, we developed a framework for assessing PA vulnerability to climate change based on consideration of potential climate change impacts on species and their habitats and resource use. Furthermore, the capacity of PAs to adapt to these climate threats was determined through assessment of PA management effectiveness,...

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high‐resoluti...

Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is theref...

In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands,...

Aim Shrubs are multistemmed woody plants and are a successful growth form in many ecosystems globally. Ecosystems such as the Fynbos in South Africa or mediterranean shrublands are dominated by a dense shrub cover. In savannas, shrubs are a major vegetation component. Despite the importance of shrubs at the global scale, they are, in contrast to trees, often understudied both in empirical and modelling studies. We define shrub...

Aim It remains poorly understood why the position of the forest–savanna biome boundary, in a domain defined by precipitation and temperature, differs in South America, Africa and Australia. Process based Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are a valuable tool to investigate the determinants of vegetation distributions; however, many DGVMs fail to predict the spatial distribution or indeed presence of the South American sa...

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km 2 ) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas in...

Dynamic vegetation models provide process‐based explanations of the dynamics and the distribution of plant ecosystems. They offer significant advantages over static, correlative modelling approaches, particularly for ecosystems that are outside their equilibrium due to global change or climate change. A persistent problem, however, is their parameterization. Parameters and processes of dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are trad...

Aim To develop a physiologically based model of the plant niche for use in species distribution modelling. Location Europe. Methods We link the Thornley transport resistance (TTR) model with functions which describe how the TTR’s model parameters are influenced by abiotic environmental factors. The TTR model considers how carbon and nutrient uptake, and the allocation of these assimilates, influence growth. We use indirect sta...

Savannas are characterized by a competitive tension between grasses and trees, and theoretical models illustrate how this competitive tension is influenced by resource availability, competition for these resources, and disturbances. How this universe of theoretical possibilities translates into the real world is, however, poorly understood. In this paper we indirectly parameterize a theoretical model of savanna dynamics with t...

Recent IPCC projections suggest that Africa will be subject to particularly severe changes in atmospheric conditions. How the vegetation of Africa and particularly the grassland–savanna–forest complex will respond to these changes has rarely been investigated. Most studies on global carbon cycles use vegetation models that do not adequately account for the complexity of the interactions that shape the distribution of tropical...