Global wood harvests have steadily increased over the last several decades and are projected to continue growing to match demand for wood products. How forest managers respond to changes in wood demand depends not just on timber prices and production costs but also on competition with other land uses, changes in forest productivity, and land use policies. Wood demand projections are sensitive to assumptions about socioeconomic...

We have committed to ambitious targets under the Global Biodiversity Framework, but projected climate change makes the achievement of many of these targets extremely difficult and will effectively require a significant rethinking in how to achieve multiple targets. In this Opinion, we have chosen to focus on selected targets, considering how their achievement is likely to be compromised by climate change but also what the poss...

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 20...

The two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversi...

A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co‐benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co‐benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks fro...

The rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration leads to a CO 2 fertilization effect on plants—that is, increased photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 by leaves and enhanced water‐use efficiency (WUE). Yet, the resulting net impact of CO 2 fertilization on plant growth and soil moisture (SM) savings at large scale is poorly understood. Drylands provide a natural experimental setting to detect the CO 2 fertilization effect on plant growth s...

In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands,...

Gaps in our current understanding and quantification of biomass carbon stocks, particularly in tropics, lead to large uncertainty in future projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. We use the recently published GlobBiomass data set of forest above‐ground biomass (AGB) density for the year 2010, obtained from multiple remote sensing and in situ observations at 100 m spatial resolution to evaluate AGB estimated by nine dyn...

Robust estimates of CO 2 budget, CO 2 exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: “top‐down” atmospheric inversions and “bottom‐up” biosph...

There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as “land challenges”). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver me...

Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration, on global soil N 2 O emissions for the pe...

The springtime transition to regional‐scale onset of photosynthesis and net ecosystem carbon uptake in boreal and tundra ecosystems are linked to the soil freeze–thaw state. We present evidence from diagnostic and inversion models constrained by satellite fluorescence and airborne CO 2 from 2012 to 2014 indicating the timing and magnitude of spring carbon uptake in Alaska correlates with landscape thaw and ecoregion. Landscape...

Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting...

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land‐based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land‐based mitigation scenarios from two land‐use models ( IMAGE and MA g PIE ) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models ( DGVM...

Biotic disturbances ( BD s, for example, insects, pathogens, and wildlife herbivory) substantially affect boreal and temperate forest ecosystems globally. However, accurate impact assessments comprising larger spatial scales are lacking to date although these are critically needed given the expected disturbance intensification under a warming climate. Hence, our quantitative knowledge on current and future BD impacts, for exam...

Aim Biotic disturbances (BD, including insects, pathogens and wildlife herbivory) can alter forest structure and the capability of forests to deliver ecosystem services. Impact assessments, however, are limited by the lack of reliable and timely disturbance data at large spatial scales. This review synthesizes empirical data on the magnitude and distribution of spatio‐temporal impacts of BD. Location Northern Hemisphere. Metho...

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land‐based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the ag...

Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover ( LULC ) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this stu...

Aim To reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns of European fire activity during the Holocene and to explore their potential drivers, by relating biomass burning to simulated biotic and abiotic parameters. Location E urope. Methods Holocene fire activity was investigated based on 156 sedimentary charcoal records from lakes and peat bogs across E urope. Charcoal data covering the last 9000 years were statistically compared wit...

Isoprene is emitted from many terrestrial plants at high rates, accounting for an estimated 1/3 of annual global volatile organic compound emissions from all anthropogenic and biogenic sources combined. Through rapid photooxidation reactions in the atmosphere, isoprene is converted to a variety of oxidized hydrocarbons, providing higher order reactants for the production of organic nitrates and tropospheric ozone, reducing the...

The intensification of the hydrological cycle, with an observed and modeled increase in drought incidence and severity, underscores the need to quantify drought effects on carbon cycling and the terrestrial sink. FLUXNET, a global network of eddy covariance towers, provides dense data streams of meteorological data, and through flux partitioning and gap filling algorithms, estimates of net ecosystem productivity ( F NEP ), gro...

The measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 between the ecosystem and the atmosphere reflects the balance between gross CO 2 assimilation [gross primary production (GPP)] and ecosystem respiration (R eco ). For understanding the mechanistic responses of ecosystem processes to environmental change it is important to separate these two flux components. Two approaches are conventionally used: (1) respiration measurements ma...

Results from free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiments in temperate climates indicate that the response of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated CO 2 might be highly conserved across a broad range of productivities. In this study, we show that the LPJ‐GUESS dynamic vegetation model reproduces the magnitude of the NPP enhancement at temperate forest FACE experiments. A global application of the model suggests that...

Measurements of the net CO 2 flux between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere using the eddy covariance technique have the potential to underpin our interpretation of regional CO 2 source–sink patterns, CO 2 flux responses to forcings, and predictions of the future terrestrial C balance. Information contained in FLUXNET eddy covariance data has multiple uses for the development and application of global carbon models, in...

Process‐based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In t...