Climate change is one of the top threats to biodiversity. However, many species risk assessment frameworks, including the globally authoritative International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, do not consistently and comprehensively incorporate loss of climatically suitable habitat into listing or threat categorization decisions. Using California's foundational, endemic and near‐endemic trees as an exemplary set of hi...

Climate change is projected to cause extensive plant range shifts, and, in many cases such shifts already are underway. Most long‐term studies of range shifts measure emergent changes in species distributions but not the underlying demographic patterns that shape them. To better understand species' elevational range shifts and their underlying demographic processes, we use the powerful approach of rephotography, comparing hist...

The expectations of polar or upslope distributional shifts of species ranges in response to warming climate conditions have been recently questioned. Diverse responses of different life stages to changing temperature and moisture regimes may alter these predicted range dynamics. Furthermore, the climate driver(s) influencing demographic rates, and the contribution of each demographic rate to population growth rate (λ), may shi...

Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical ch...

Drought extent and severity have increased and are predicted to continue to increase in many parts of the world. Understanding tree vulnerability to drought at both individual and species levels is key to ongoing forest management and preparation for future transitions in community composition. The influence of subsurface hydrologic processes is particularly important in water‐limited ecosystems, and is an under‐studied aspect...

The impacts of climate change have re‐energized interest in understanding the role of climate in setting species geographic range edges. Despite the strong focus on species' distributions in ecology and evolution, defining a species range edge is theoretically and empirically difficult. The challenge of determining a range edge and its relationship to climate is in part driven by the nested nature of geography and the multidim...

Many recent studies on drought‐induced vegetation mortality have explored how plant functional traits, and classifications of such traits along axes of, for example, isohydry–anisohydry, might contribute to predicting drought survival and recovery. As these studies proliferate, the consistency and predictive value of such classifications need to be carefully examined. Here, we outline the basis for a systematic classification...

Current models used for predicting vegetation responses to climate change are often guided by the dichotomous needs to resolve either (i) internal plant water status as a proxy for physiological vulnerability or (ii) external water and carbon fluxes and atmospheric feedbacks. Yet, accurate representation of fluxes does not always equate to accurate predictions of vulnerability. We resolve this discrepancy using a hydrodynamic...

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently a...

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of...

Ecologists and evolutionary biologists perceive the ecological niche as a multidimensional relationship between an organism and its environment. Yet, we know little about the degree to which multiple niche axes evolve in concert across various spatial scales to explain differences in distribution patterns and habitat specialization among lineages. Here we used contemporary phylogenetic approaches to analyze the evolution of sp...

The diversity of life is ultimately generated by evolution, and much attention has focused on the rapid evolution of ecological traits. Yet, the tendency for many ecological traits to instead remain similar over time [niche conservatism (NC)] has many consequences for the fundamental patterns and processes studied in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we describe the mounting evidence for the importance of NC to major top...

Increased intensity in precipitation events and longer periods of water deficit are predicted as a general trend under future climate scenarios with potentially large effects on terrestrial ecosystem function. The primary objective of this study was to understand how variation in the intensity of precipitation inputs followed by intermittent soil drying events influence leaf and ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and water excha...

This paper addresses some of the conceptual issues involved in the analysis of the age and origin of mediterranean‐climate plant taxa, paying particular attention to three topics: (1) the importance of an explicit time frame in the definition of biogeographical origins, (2) the distinction between the age of traits and the age of taxa, and (3) the idea of mediterranean‐type ecosystems as environmental islands. (1) In Californi...

Aim To provide the first global quantification of the slope and shape of the latitudinal gradient in seed mass, and to determine whether global patterns in seed mass are best explained by growth form, vegetation type, seed dispersal syndrome, or net primary productivity (NPP). Location Global. Methods We collected seed mass data for 11,481 species × site combinations from around the world. We used regression to describe the la...

Recent developments in community models emphasize the importance of incorporating stochastic processes (e.g. ecological drift) in models of niche‐structured community assembly. We constructed a finite, spatially explicit, lottery model to simulate the distribution of species in a one‐dimensional landscape with an underlying gradient in environmental conditions. Our framework combines the potential for ecological drift with env...