The consequences of climate change are often conceptualised in terms of the changing risks of natural disasters, or as reductions in future economic output. When understood in these terms, it is all too easy to believe that one might “get lucky”—that the floods won’t affect those of us who don’t live by the waterfront, and that the heatwaves won’t affect the salaries or job security of those of us who go to work in air conditi...

It has recently been highlighted that the economic value of climate change mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming. This insight has been obtained through a focus on the fat upper tail of the climate sensitivity probability distribution. However, while climate sensitivity is undoubtedly important, what ultimately matters is transient temperature change. A focus on transient temperature change...