Stephen P. Ellner results 51
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Since the early 2000's, Modern Coexistence Theory (MCT) has guided empirical investigations of coexistence. We reviewed empirical applications of MCT to answer two questions: (1) What have we learned about the strength of temporal, spatial and variation‐independent mechanisms of coexistence in nature? (2) How have studies of niche and fitness differences advanced our understanding of coexistence? With respect to the first ques...
My, how you've grown: A practical guide to modeling size transitions for integral projection model ( IPM ) applicationsNARA Subscribed
Integral projection models (IPMs) are widely used for studying continuously size‐structured populations. IPMs require a growth sub‐model that describes the probability of future size conditional on current size and any covariates. Most IPM studies assume that this distribution is Gaussian, despite calls for non‐Gaussian models that accommodate skewness and excess kurtosis. We provide a general workflow for accommodating non‐Ga...
It's about (taking up) space: Discreteness of individuals and the strength of spatial coexistence mechanismsNARA Subscribed
One strand of modern coexistence theory (MCT) partitions invader growth rates (IGR) to quantify how different mechanisms contribute to species coexistence, highlighting fluctuation‐dependent mechanisms. A general conclusion from the classical analytic MCT theory is that coexistence mechanisms relying on temporal variation (such as the temporal storage effect) are generally less effective at promoting coexistence than mechanism...
Chance pervades life. In turn, life histories are described by probabilities (e.g. survival and breeding) and averages across individuals (e.g. mean growth rate and age at maturity). In this study, we explored patterns of luck in lifetime outcomes by analysing structured population models for a wide array of plant and animal species. We calculated four response variables: variance and skewness in both lifespan and lifetime rep...
Beyond simple adaptation: Incorporating other evolutionary processes and concepts into eco‐evolutionary dynamicsNARA Subscribed
Studies of eco‐evolutionary dynamics have integrated evolution with ecological processes at multiple scales (populations, communities and ecosystems) and with multiple interspecific interactions (antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive). However, evolution has often been conceptualised as a simple process: short‐term directional adaptation that increases population growth. Here we argue that diverse other evolutionary proces...
Plant defense synergies and antagonisms affect performance of specialist herbivores of common milkweedNARA Subscribed
As a general rule, plants defend against herbivores with multiple traits. The defense synergy hypothesis posits that some traits are more effective when co‐expressed with others compared to their independent efficacy. However, this hypothesis has rarely been tested outside of phytochemical mixtures, and seldom under field conditions. We tested for synergies between multiple defense traits of common milkweed ( Asclepias syriaca...
Pathogen transport amplifies or dilutes disease transmission depending on the host dose‐response relationshipNARA Subscribed
Pathogen transport by biotic or abiotic processes (e.g. mechanical vectors, wind, rain) can increase disease transmission by creating more opportunities for host exposure. But transport without replication has an inherent trade‐off, that creating new venues for exposure decreases the average pathogen abundance at each venue. The host dose‐response relationship is therefore required to correctly assess infection risk. We model...
A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecologyNARA Subscribed
Selecting among competing statistical models is a core challenge in science. However, the many possible approaches and techniques for model selection, and the conflicting recommendations for their use, can be confusing. We contend that much confusion surrounding statistical model selection results from failing to first clearly specify the purpose of the analysis. We argue that there are three distinct goals for statistical mod...
Technical Comment on Pande et al . (2020): Why invasion analysis is important for understanding coexistenceNARA Subscribed
Pande et al . (2020) point out that persistence time can decrease even as invader growth rates (IGRs) increase, which potentially undermines modern coexistence theory. However, because persistence time increases rapidly with system size only when IGR > 0, to understand how any real community persists, we should first identify the mechanisms producing positive IGR.
Understanding long‐term coexistence of numerous competing species is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Progress requires determining which processes and species differences are most important for coexistence when multiple processes operate and species differ in many ways. Modern coexistence theory (MCT), formalised by Chesson, holds out the promise of doing that, but empirical applications remain scarce. We argue that MCT's...
Size‐by‐environment interactions: a neglected dimension of species' responses to environmental variationNARA Subscribed
In both plant and animal systems, size can determine whether an individual survives and grows under different environmental conditions. However, it is unclear whether and when size‐dependent responses to exogenous environmental fluctuations affect population dynamics. Size‐by‐environment interactions create pathways for environmental fluctuations to influence population dynamics by allowing for negative covariation between siz...
Disease where you dine: plant species and floral traits associated with pathogen transmission in bumble beesNARA Subscribed
Hotspots of disease transmission can strongly influence pathogen spread. Bee pathogens may be transmitted via shared floral use, but the role of plant species and floral trait variation in shaping transmission dynamics is almost entirely unexplored. Given the importance of pathogens for the decline of several bee species, understanding whether and how plant species and floral traits affect transmission could give us important...
Weak interspecific interactions in a sagebrush steppe? Conflicting evidence from observations and experimentsNARA Subscribed
Stable coexistence requires intraspecific limitations to be stronger than interspecific limitations. The greater the difference between intra‐ and interspecific limitations, the more stable the coexistence, and the weaker the competitive release any species should experience following removal of competitors. We conducted a removal experiment to test whether a previously estimated model, showing surprisingly weak interspecific...
The storage effect has become a core concept in community ecology, explaining how environmental fluctuations can promote coexistence and maintain biodiversity. However, limitations of existing theory have hindered empirical applications: the need for detailed mathematical analysis whenever the study system requires a new model, and restricted theory for structured populations. We present a new approach that overcomes both thes...
A newly discovered role of evolution in previously published consumer–resource dynamicsNARA Subscribed
Consumer–resource interactions are fundamental components of ecological communities. Classic features of consumer–resource models are that temporal dynamics are often cyclic, with a ¼‐period lag between resource and consumer population peaks. However, there are few published empirical examples of this pattern. Here, we show that many published examples of consumer–resource cycling show instead patterns indicating eco‐evolution...
Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being applied to study size‐structured populations. Here we call attention to a potential problem in their construction that can have important consequences for model results. IPMs are implemented using an approximating matrix and bounded size range. Individuals near the size limits can be unknowingly “evicted” from the model because their predicted future size is outside the...
The functional genomics of an eco‐evolutionary feedback loop: linking gene expression, trait evolution, and community dynamicsNARA Subscribed
Ecology Letters (2012) 15 : 492–501 Abstract Feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary change may play important roles in community and ecosystem functioning, but a complete eco‐evolutionary feedback loop has not been demonstrated at the community level, and we know little about molecular mechanisms underlying this kind of eco‐evolutionary dynamics. In predator–prey (rotifer‐alga) microcosms, cyclical changes in predator a...