Increasingly, climate change is pushing species to the limits of their thermal tolerance, with cascading effects across ecosystems. Animals use behavior to prevent these harmful physiological states, but their need and ability to do so varies with their traits. Within species, traits such as sex and reproductive status affect heat sensitivity, perhaps eliciting differences in behavioral responses to thermal extremes. We evalua...

Remains of megatheres have been known since the 18th -century and were among the first megafaunal vertebrates to be studied. While several examples of preserved integument show a thick coverage of fur for smaller ground sloths living in cold climates such as Mylodon and Nothrotheriops , comparatively very little is known about megathere skin. Assuming a typical placental mammal metabolism, it was previously hypothesized that m...

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to Alle alle , Fratercula arctica , Uria aalge , Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla ) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shif...

Aim Identifying how climate change, habitat loss, and corridors interact to influence species survival or extinction is critical to understanding macro‐scale biodiversity dynamics under changing environments. In North America, the ice‐free corridor was the only major pathway for northward migration by megafaunal species during the last deglaciation. However, the timing and interplay among the late Quaternary megafaunal extinct...

We collated smolt‐to‐adult return rate (SAR) data for Chinook salmon from all available regions of the Pacific coast of North America to examine the large‐scale patterns of salmon survival. For consistency, our analyses primarily used coded wire tag‐based (CWT) SAR estimates. Survival collapsed over the past half century by roughly a factor of three to ca. 1% for many regions. Within the Columbia River, the SARs of Snake River...

Winter climate warming is rapidly leading to changes in snow depth and soil temperatures across mid‐ and high‐latitude ecosystems, with important implications for survival and distribution of species that overwinter beneath the snow. Amphibians are a particularly vulnerable group to winter climate change because of the tight coupling between their body temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we used a mechanistic microclimate mo...

On St. Paul Island, a remnant of the Bering Land Bridge, woolly mammoths persisted until 5,600 yr BP with no known predators or competitors, providing a natural system for studying hypothesized environmental drivers of extinction. These include overheating due to rising temperatures, starvation, and drought. Here, we test these hypotheses using Niche Mapper and LPJ ‐ GUESS to mechanistically estimate mammoth metabolic rates an...

Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species’ adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species’ distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the b...

Aim Recognition that statistical models do not always reliably predict habitat suitability under future climate scenarios is leading increasingly to explicit incorporation of the physiological constraints that underlie species’ distributions into spatially explicit predictions. However, computational intensity constrains the use of high‐resolution, process‐explicit models. We examined whether geostatistical analysis can effect...

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models ( SDM s), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) as an example, we present a framework...

Species distribution models (SDMs) use spatial environmental data to make inferences on species’ range limits and habitat suitability. Conceptually, these models aim to determine and map components of a species’ ecological niche through space and time, and they have become important tools in pure and applied ecology and evolutionary biology. Most approaches are correlative in that they statistically link spatial data to specie...