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Larval dispersal models predict reefs that experience crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks receive more larvaeNARA Subscribed
Crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) are a leading cause of coral decline on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), with the majority of their impact occurring during outbreaks. These outbreaks involve rapid increases in populations followed by abrupt declines, and spread between reefs via larval dispersal—a key process in COTS reproduction. Given the difficulty in quantifying dispersal empirically, predictions are instead formed using coup...
Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions—ClarificationNARA Subscribed
Woodstock and Harris raise concerns about generalisations in our paper ‘Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions’. They implied that our conclusions are invalidated by the exclusion of density dependent compensatory feedback and the existence of automated calibration approaches with overfitting penalties—claims that overlook the broader structural issues we identified. He...
Motivation Here, we make available a second version of the BioTIME database, which compiles records of abundance estimates for species in sample events of ecological assemblages through time. The updated version expands version 1.0 of the database by doubling the number of studies and includes substantial additional curation to the taxonomic accuracy of the records, as well as the metadata. Moreover, we now provide an R packag...
Larval dispersal is a critical ecological process in marine ecosystems, responsible for connecting and replenishing populations in patchy habitat. Because empirical measurements of larval dispersal are very challenging, coupled biological and oceanographic simulations (“biophysical models”) of larval dispersal are commonly used to answer ecological questions and support conservation management decisions. In the process of crea...
Agreements reached at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCMs) are among the primary means for addressing Antarctic conservation and environmental protection issues. However, according to contemporary scholars, Antarctic Treaty decision‐making is becoming increasingly unresponsive to the rising environmental challenges in the region. We assessed the performance of Antarctic Treaty decision‐making by measuring the rat...
Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management DecisionsNARA Subscribed
Ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of management interventions in applied ecology and conservation. These models are often high‐dimensional and nonlinear, yet limited data are available to calibrate or validate them. Consequently, their utility as decision‐support tools is unclear. In this paper, we calibrate ecosystem models to time series data from 110 different experimental microcosm ecosystems, eac...
Identifying and explaining resilience in ecological networksNARA Subscribed
Resilient ecological systems are more likely to persist and function in the Anthropocene. Current methods for estimating an ecosystem's resilience rely on accurately parameterized ecosystem models, which is a significant empirical challenge. In this paper, we adapt tools from biochemical kinetics to identify ecological networks that exhibit ‘structural resilience’, a strong form of resilience that is solely a property of the n...
Dispersal patterns of sandfish (Holothuria scabra) larvae in Manus Province, Papua New GuineaOA Marine
In many tropical nations, coastal communities seek to manage their sea cucumber fisheries by establishing locally managed marine areas on their traditional fishing grounds. These managed areas can protect spawning stocks, however the extent to which they help to replenish nearby sea cucumber fisheries is debated, as nothing is known about the scales at which sea cucumber larvae disperse. In this study, we used genetic parentag...
Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data‐poor island ecosystemNARA Subscribed
Data‐hungry, complex ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of threatened species management, including perverse outcomes. Unfortunately, this approach is impractical in the many systems that have insufficient data to parameterize ecosystem interactions or reliably calibrate or validate such models. We devised a different approach composed of a minimum realistic model that guides decisions in data‐ and res...
A shipwreck of the 3rd/2nd decade BC found near Comacchio (prov. Ferrara, Italy) in 1980 contained not only well-preserved technical equipment and commercial goods but also 102 Roman lead ingots. Since then, the origin of the ingots has been intensively discussed. Domergue et al. (2012) connected the epigraphic elements with lead isotope analyses and favored the southeastern Spanish lead ore mines being the source of the lead...
Ecosystems have always been shaped by disturbances, but many of these events are becoming larger, more severe and more frequent. The recovery capacity of depleted populations depends on the frequency of disturbances, the spatial distribution of mortality and the scale of dispersal. Here, we show that four mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (in 1998, 2002, 2016 and 2017) each had markedly larger disturbance f...
Discovery of a major QTL for root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne incognita) resistance in cultivated sweetpotato (Ipomoea batatas)NARA Subscribed
Key message Utilizing a high-density integrated genetic linkage map of hexaploid sweetpotato, we discovered a major dominant QTL for root-knot nematode (RKN) resistance and modeled its effects. This discovery is useful for development of a modern sweetpotato breeding program that utilizes marker-assisted selection and genomic selection approaches for faster genetic gain of RKN resistance. Abstract The root-knot nematode [Meloi...
Using ensemble modeling to predict the impacts of assisted migration on recipient ecosystemsNARA Subscribed
Assisted migration is a controversial conservation measure that aims to protect threatened species by moving part of their population outside its natural range. Although this could save species from extinction, it also introduces a range of risks. The magnitude of the threat to recipient ecosystems has not been investigated quantitatively, despite being the most common criticism leveled at the action. We used an ensemble model...